Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-05-07 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

FLA: 56.6%

TOR: 43.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.42

TOR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	24	22	2	91.7%	2.62	0	0.62
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	26	3	89.7%	3.45	2	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	0	0.87
1	TOR	10	0	0.54
2	FLA	19	2	1.67
2	TOR	12	0	1.04
3	FLA	13	0	0.81
3	TOR	18	0	1.04
4	FLA	1	0	0.10
4	TOR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8