Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-05-10 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 54.7%

TOR: 45.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.54

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	25	23	2	92.0%	2.95	2	0.95
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	24	1	96.0%	2.80	2	1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	0	0.79
1	TOR	9	1	0.54
2	FLA	9	1	0.94
2	TOR	17	1	1.87
3	FLA	13	1	1.08
3	TOR	10	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9