New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-05-03 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 43.5%

NJD: 56.5%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.68

NJD: 3.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	18	17	1	94.4%	1.46	0	0.46
NJD	A. Schmid	23	18	5	78.3%	3.62	2	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • CAR at home vs NJD: 15-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	0	1.13
1	NJD	3	0	0.07
2	CAR	16	0	0.88
2	NJD	13	0	0.84
3	CAR	10	2	1.61
3	NJD	13	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.7 - 3.8