Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Seattle Kraken (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 48.3%

SEA: 51.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.37

SEA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	44	39	5	88.6%	3.34	1	-1.66
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	35	31	4	88.6%	3.24	2	-0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs SEA: 10-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	1	0.90
1	SEA	16	0	0.85
2	DAL	13	0	0.82
2	SEA	17	0	0.93
3	DAL	15	1	1.01
3	SEA	17	1	1.15
4	DAL	9	0	0.50
4	SEA	13	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1