Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 46.8%

SEA: 53.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

SEA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	25	2	92.6%	1.96	0	-0.04
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	37	33	4	89.2%	4.63	5	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs SEA: 10-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	1.16
1	SEA	7	0	0.39
2	DAL	28	3	2.40
2	SEA	19	0	0.59
3	DAL	12	2	1.07
3	SEA	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3