Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-05-09 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 54.2%

DAL: 45.8%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.11

DAL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	25	19	6	76.0%	3.16	2	-2.84
DAL	Jake Oettinger	19	16	3	84.2%	3.12	4	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • SEA at home vs DAL: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	10	1	0.80
1	DAL	16	1	1.21
2	SEA	11	1	1.00
2	DAL	14	0	0.88
3	SEA	17	2	1.32
3	DAL	5	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 3 - 6 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1