Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.1%

SEA: 50.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.55

SEA: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	1.79	2	-0.21
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	21	16	5	76.2%	3.65	4	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs SEA: 10-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	0	0.42
1	SEA	17	0	0.45
2	DAL	13	2	1.85
2	SEA	11	2	1.00
3	DAL	9	2	1.38
3	SEA	10	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1