Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-05-14 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 62.1%

VGK: 37.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.70

VGK: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	17	5	77.3%	3.06	3	-1.94
VGK	Adin Hill	40	38	2	95.0%	4.28	2	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	17	0	1.08
1	VGK	9	1	0.78
2	EDM	17	1	1.32
2	VGK	12	1	0.95
3	EDM	20	1	1.88
3	VGK	8	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7