Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 51.4%

DAL: 48.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

DAL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	26	2	92.9%	2.72	2	0.72
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	21	3	87.5%	2.78	3	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.59
1	DAL	15	1	0.94
2	VGK	11	0	0.85
2	DAL	11	0	0.79
3	VGK	20	2	1.03
3	DAL	16	0	0.77
4	VGK	2	1	0.32
4	DAL	1	1	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0