Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 56.7%

VGK: 43.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.48

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	16	12	4	75.0%	1.15	0	-2.85
VGK	Adin Hill	34	34	0	100.0%	2.33	1	2.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	0.64
1	VGK	13	0	0.70
2	DAL	17	0	0.93
2	VGK	6	0	0.40
3	DAL	19	1	0.76
3	VGK	3	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0