Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-05-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VGK: 47.3%

DAL: 52.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.84

DAL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	34	30	4	88.2%	3.81	6	-0.19
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	27	2	93.1%	2.99	1	0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	1.01
1	DAL	19	1	1.28
2	VGK	14	1	1.18
2	DAL	13	1	1.03
3	VGK	13	0	0.80
3	DAL	14	4	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1