Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-05-29 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 56.6%

VGK: 43.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

VGK: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	23	6	79.3%	3.35	2	-2.65
VGK	Adin Hill	23	23	0	100.0%	1.25	0	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	0	0.29
1	VGK	25	1	2.01
2	DAL	8	0	0.28
2	VGK	12	0	0.74
3	DAL	15	0	0.67
3	VGK	7	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9