Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-06-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 46.0%

FLA: 54.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.78

FLA: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	35	33	2	94.3%	2.67	1	0.67
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	34	29	5	85.3%	4.31	3	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VGK at home vs FLA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	2	1.38
1	FLA	14	1	1.11
2	VGK	17	0	1.14
2	FLA	19	0	0.70
3	VGK	16	1	1.78
3	FLA	17	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6