Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-06-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

VGK: 51.9%

FLA: 48.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.96

FLA: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	31	29	2	93.5%	3.08	2	1.08
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	21	7	75.0%	2.98	0	-4.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VGK at home vs FLA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	0.95
1	FLA	14	0	1.05
2	VGK	10	0	0.96
2	FLA	20	0	1.08
3	VGK	13	0	1.08
3	FLA	22	2	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1