Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-06-08 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 49.4%

VGK: 50.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.07

VGK: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	25	2	92.6%	3.62	1	1.62
VGK	Adin Hill	23	20	3	87.0%	2.86	3	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs VGK: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	FLA
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	2	0.95
1	VGK	8	0	0.46
2	FLA	12	1	0.94
2	VGK	17	1	1.78
3	FLA	20	0	0.94
3	VGK	13	0	1.27
4	FLA	1	0	0.03
4	VGK	3	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3