Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-01-04 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 60.0%

TBL: 40.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.52

TBL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.36
1	TBL	14	0	1.07
2	MIN	11	0	0.37
2	TBL	17	1	1.35
3	MIN	11	0	0.43
3	TBL	14	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8