Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-01-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TOR: 42.2%

COL: 57.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.33

COL: 4.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	2	1.49
1	COL	20	0	0.81
2	TOR	14	0	0.53
2	COL	17	3	1.64
3	TOR	11	0	0.25
3	COL	21	3	2.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.3 - 4.2