New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 57.6%

NYI: 42.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

NYI: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	1	1.34
1	NYI	19	0	0.72
2	TOR	17	0	1.11
2	NYI	16	0	0.83
3	TOR	20	1	1.32
3	NYI	12	1	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2