Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-02-06 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 55.8%

MTL: 44.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.52

MTL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WSH	8	0.34
1	MTL	16	0.84
2	WSH	25	1.39
2	MTL	8	0.43
3	WSH	21	0.65
3	MTL	9	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9