Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-02-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 49.4%

TBL: 50.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.83

TBL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.58
1	TBL	11	0	0.54
2	NYR	19	0	1.17
2	TBL	8	0	0.22
3	NYR	10	2	1.28
3	TBL	19	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3