Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

TOR: 54.6%

DAL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

DAL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TOR at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	6	1	0.46
1	DAL	16	0	1.02
2	TOR	18	1	1.22
2	DAL	20	0	0.83
3	TOR	18	1	1.56
3	DAL	15	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2