Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-02-08 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYI: 55.4%

TBL: 44.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.16

TBL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	1	1.17
1	TBL	6	0	0.30
2	NYI	11	0	0.78
2	TBL	14	1	0.77
3	NYI	6	0	0.35
3	TBL	15	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0