Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-02-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 57.7%

TOR: 42.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.31

TOR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	1	1.17
1	TOR	11	0	0.94
2	OTT	17	1	1.69
2	TOR	19	0	1.24
3	OTT	19	3	2.32
3	TOR	21	4	2.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0