Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-02-13 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 48.6%

TBL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.30

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	0	0.94
1	TBL	10	0	0.72
2	BOS	13	1	0.97
2	TBL	18	1	1.28
3	BOS	16	0	0.98
3	TBL	9	0	0.40
4	BOS	7	0	0.61
4	TBL	3	0	0.33
5	BOS	3	0	0.18
5	TBL	2	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9