St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

TOR: 55.3%

STL: 44.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.39

STL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	1	1.59
1	STL	5	0	0.28
2	TOR	16	0	1.05
2	STL	15	0	0.83
3	TOR	18	1	1.68
3	STL	8	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2