Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-02-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TBL: 51.5%

COL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.52

COL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	22	0	1.25
1	COL	12	1	0.61
2	TBL	12	0	0.74
2	COL	13	1	1.14
3	TBL	20	3	3.22
3	COL	13	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0