Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 42.2%

PHI: 57.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

PHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.60
1	PHI	13	0	0.94
2	TOR	17	0	0.84
2	PHI	15	1	1.10
3	TOR	13	1	1.34
3	PHI	14	2	0.97
4	TOR	1	0	0.13
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2