Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-02-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.4%

WSH: 47.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.62

WSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	0	0.65
1	WSH	21	3	1.82
2	MTL	12	1	1.13
2	WSH	16	1	1.13
3	MTL	18	1	0.92
3	WSH	14	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0