Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-02-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 49.8%

OTT: 50.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.56

OTT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.76
1	OTT	16	0	0.66
2	TBL	13	0	0.76
2	OTT	14	0	0.81
3	TBL	17	1	1.38
3	OTT	11	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1