New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-02-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.6%

NYI: 46.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.16

NYI: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	1	0.83
1	NYI	17	0	0.70
2	PIT	16	2	1.34
2	NYI	13	1	1.37
3	PIT	19	0	1.10
3	NYI	9	0	0.44
4	PIT	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3