Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-02-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 43.5%

BUF: 56.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.90

BUF: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	1.24
1	BUF	10	0	0.86
2	MTL	16	0	0.49
2	BUF	15	0	1.20
3	MTL	19	1	1.00
3	BUF	4	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5