Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-02-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 46.6%

DAL: 53.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

DAL: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	1	0.89
1	DAL	12	1	1.09
2	OTT	19	0	1.41
2	DAL	9	0	0.41
3	OTT	18	0	0.97
3	DAL	6	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3