Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-02-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 69.5%

MTL: 30.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.45

MTL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.25
1	MTL	27	1	1.42
2	PIT	16	0	1.03
2	MTL	10	0	0.43
3	PIT	8	1	0.81
3	MTL	14	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8