Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-02-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 64.7%

WSH: 35.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.55

WSH: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.12
1	WSH	12	2	1.49
2	TBL	9	0	0.37
2	WSH	14	0	0.90
3	TBL	21	0	1.17
3	WSH	7	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.6 - 2.6