Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-02-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 62.7%

TOR: 37.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.42

TOR: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	0.77
1	TOR	29	1	1.75
2	VGK	8	0	0.35
2	TOR	11	0	0.86
3	VGK	11	0	0.71
3	TOR	14	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.6