Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-02-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 50.7%

TBL: 49.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.03

TBL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.24
1	TBL	14	1	0.63
2	NYI	15	0	1.02
2	TBL	15	0	0.89
3	NYI	25	2	2.08
3	TBL	8	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9