Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-02-24 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

COL: 46.8%

TOR: 53.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.73

TOR: 3.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	0	1.21
1	TOR	15	0	0.62
2	COL	15	1	1.10
2	TOR	14	1	0.99
3	COL	14	0	0.62
3	TOR	7	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.7