Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-02-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 63.1%

CGY: 36.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.59

CGY: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.87
1	CGY	16	1	1.22
2	EDM	18	2	1.54
2	CGY	12	2	1.03
3	EDM	17	0	1.41
3	CGY	12	3	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7