Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-02-25 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 54.2%

TBL: 45.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.21

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	11	0	0.59
1	TBL	11	0	0.42
2	NJD	17	1	0.99
2	TBL	17	0	1.04
3	NJD	6	0	0.29
3	TBL	14	4	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1