Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-02-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 46.6%

OTT: 53.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.05

OTT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	0.89
1	OTT	10	1	0.70
2	WSH	14	1	1.06
2	OTT	11	0	0.68
3	WSH	10	0	0.60
3	OTT	8	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2