Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-02-27 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 65.7%
VGK: 34.3%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.77
VGK: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | TOR | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.818 | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
| 2026-01-15 | VGK 6 - 5 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-05 | VGK 5 - 2 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3 - 0 VGK | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-02-27 | TOR 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 09:11 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 12:20 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 17:45 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 19:09 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 10:50 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 14:35 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 18:23 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:29 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.8 - 3.0