Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 60.3%

VGK: 39.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.83

VGK: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.50
1	VGK	11	0	0.48
2	TOR	14	0	0.63
2	VGK	18	2	1.70
3	TOR	17	0	1.20
3	VGK	22	2	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.8 - 3.4