Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-02-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 48.0%

BUF: 52.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.38

BUF: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.88
1	BUF	7	0	0.36
2	TBL	13	0	0.53
2	BUF	8	0	0.26
3	TBL	8	1	0.68
3	BUF	13	0	0.71
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	2	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3