Arizona Coyotes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-02-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

TOR: 60.7%

ARI: 39.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.72

ARI: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TOR at home vs ARI: 1-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-29	TOR 4 - 2 ARI	TOR	TOR
2024-02-21	ARI 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	2	1.64
1	ARI	13	0	0.71
2	TOR	18	1	0.93
2	ARI	15	0	0.82
3	TOR	8	2	1.32
3	ARI	19	1	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8