Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-03-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.6%

PHI: 52.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.09

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	6	2	0.81
1	PHI	17	1	1.26
2	WSH	11	1	1.05
2	PHI	10	0	0.56
3	WSH	11	2	1.12
3	PHI	14	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0