Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-03-02 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TBL: 69.6%

MTL: 30.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.99

MTL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	8	0	0.37
1	MTL	12	0	1.00
2	TBL	22	1	1.30
2	MTL	8	0	0.30
3	TBL	13	1	0.99
3	MTL	18	0	1.19
4	TBL	2	0	0.16
4	MTL	2	0	0.09
5	TBL	6	2	1.90
5	MTL	6	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7