New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TOR: 53.3%

NYR: 46.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.74

NYR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	22	0	0.75
1	NYR	22	1	1.13
2	TOR	16	0	1.30
2	NYR	8	0	0.42
3	TOR	16	2	1.64
3	NYR	21	0	1.49
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	NYR	6	0	0.38
5	TOR	4	2	1.66
5	NYR	4	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1