Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-03-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 45.8%

PIT: 54.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.26

PIT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	6	0	0.45
1	PIT	19	0	1.50
2	CGY	14	0	0.80
2	PIT	16	0	0.66
3	CGY	16	1	1.19
3	PIT	10	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2