Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-03-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 57.9%

WPG: 42.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.08

WPG: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	BUF
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	7	0	0.53
1	WPG	15	0	0.63
2	BUF	12	1	1.14
2	WPG	10	0	0.51
3	BUF	10	0	0.59
3	WPG	19	4	3.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1