St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 64.5%
STL: 35.5%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.58
STL: 1.99
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | PHI | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.839 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs STL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | PHI 3 - 2 STL | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-11-14 | STL 5 - 6 PHI | PHI | STL |
| 2024-11-30 | STL 2 - 3 PHI | PHI | STL |
| 2024-10-31 | PHI 2 - 1 STL | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-03-04 | PHI 1 - 2 STL | STL | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:52 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 15:47 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.6 - 2.0