Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-03-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.9%

BOS: 47.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.31

BOS: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	1.42
1	BOS	16	0	1.08
2	TOR	20	2	1.60
2	BOS	10	0	0.53
3	TOR	14	0	0.53
3	BOS	10	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1